Medicare Enrollment Trends in Four Charts

As a journalist, I love projections, estimates, predictions and speculation. They all make good stories. But what I love even more as a journalist are facts. Give me the facts so I can tell you the truth. Despite what Cheeto Jesus and his handlers say, there are no alternative facts. There is no alternative truth. It is what it is, as I like to say at the poker table after I lose another hand.

That’s why I like CMS’s annual release of National Health Expenditure (NHE) data. Historical, which CMS released in December, not projected, which CMS released last September.

At the bottom of one of the historical NHE tables, CMS reports how many people are enrolled in Medicare, and how many of those beneficiaries are enrolled in traditional Medicare versus private Medicare plans, also known as Medicare Advantage. No projections. No estimates. No predictions. No speculation. Just the facts as CMS knows them based on the agency’s own data. It is what it is.

The reason those facts are important is because, as I pointed out in last week’s blog post, spending on Medicare privatization is breaking the bank. If proponents of Medicare privatization have their way, we as taxpayers and future Medicare beneficiaries are going to pay the price.

So here, in four charts, are four fact-based trends in Medicare enrollment, based on historical CMS data.

Total Medicare Enrollment This Year

Total Medicare enrollment reached a little more than 65.1 million people in 2023. That’s up 23.3% over the 10-year period, 2014 through 2023.

Total Medicare Enrollment Over 10 Years

Total Medicare enrollment grew an average of 2.4% a year over the 10-year period, 2014 through 2023.

Breakdown of Medicare Enrollment By Year

The breakdown of total Medicare enrollment by year over the 10-year period, 2014 through 2023, shows traditional Medicare enrollment decreasing and private Medicare plan enrollment increasing.

Traditional Medicare’s Share of Total Medicare Enrollment

Traditional Medicare’s share of total Medicare enrollment decreased while private Medicare plans’ share of total Medicare enrollment increased over the 10-year period, 2014 through 2023.

There you have it. Four facts on Medicare enrollment trends. It is what it is. Let the speculation begin!

Thanks for reading.

About the Author

David Burda

David Burda began covering healthcare in 1983 and hasn’t stopped since. Dave writes this monthly column “Burda on Healthcare,” contributes weekly blog posts, manages our weekly newsletter 4sight Friday, and hosts our weekly Roundup podcast. Dave believes that healthcare is a business like any other business, and customers — patients — are king. If you do what’s right for patients, good business results will follow.

Dave’s personnel experiences with the healthcare system both as a patient and family caregiver have shaped his point of view. It’s also been shaped by covering the industry for 40 years as a reporter and editor. He worked at Modern Healthcare for 25 years, the last 11 as editor.

Prior to Modern Healthcare, he did stints at the American Medical Record Association (now AHIMA) and the American Hospital Association. After Modern Healthcare, he wrote a monthly column for Twin Cities Business explaining healthcare trends to a business audience, and he developed and executed content marketing plans for leading healthcare corporations as the editorial director for healthcare strategies at MSP Communications.

When he’s not reading and writing about healthcare, Dave spends his time riding the trails of DuPage County, IL, on his bike, tending his vegetable garden and daydreaming about being a lobster fisherman in Maine. He lives in Wheaton, IL, with his lovely wife of 40 years and his three children, none of whom want to be journalists or lobster fishermen.

January 15, 2025